Folkestone to Rye Coastal Defence Strategy Study

To establish the likely benefits of actively managing the coastline through either investment in capital or maintenance activities there is first a need to establish a common base case against which to judge the worthwhileness of any management regime put forward. Under MAFF guidance (MAFF, 1995) the common baseline is the so-called 'do-nothing' case.

Identifying the consequences of a 'do-nothing' approach is therefore critical to the decision making process and the identification of a preferred management approach to a particular issue.

Under MAFF guidance, 'do-nothing' is always an option. Where there is no scheme in existence then the 'do-nothing' option is obvious; no action is taken to intervene with natural processes. Where a scheme is present, the 'do-nothing' option is to 'walk away' and abandon all maintenance and repair to existing structures; allowing nature to take its course.

Section 6 of the Strategy Report presents the likely consequences of adopting a 'do nothing' approach to coastal defence and provides the base case against which all management options presented in Section 7 Option Identification, Evaluation and Selection are judged. It is structured in four parts as follows :

Part I presents a descriptive outline of the consequences of a 'do nothing' option for each Management Unit. It also presents a quantitative analysis of the defence performance assuming a 'do-nothing' policy is adopted. The performance criteria considered are overtopping, future erosion rates, breach probability and residual life

Part II presents the methodology adopted to establish flood risk and presents a series of flood risk maps for a range of do-nothing scenarios

Part III presents the methodology adopted to establish erosion risk maps and quantifies the shoreline position at 0, 5, 10 and 25 years into the future

Part IV quantifies the likely economic losses that maybe incurred if a 'do-nothing' policy is adopted. The methodology adopted and assumptions made are also presented

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